基于二维灰云模型的LNG动力船航行过程风险推理*

针对风险多维属性问题及船舶航行多种风险表现，提出基于二维灰云模型的LNG动力船航行过程风险推理方法。针对LNG使用及船舶航行2种作业方式，采用系统方法识别安全风险影响因素体系，确定2种作业方式下各风险体系指标变化权重，描述LNG动力船航行过程中LNG使用和船舶航行发生事故概率及后果；通过引入云模型，综合计算2种作业方式下概率及后果组合风险，并采用灰云推理2种作业方式同时存在时LNG动力船航行过程风险。结果表明:LNG动力船航行过程中LNG使用和船舶航行风险耦合，风险程度受控；二维灰云模型可有效分析多维属性下风险评估问题，以及不同作业下风险耦合作用。研究结果可为船舶航行过程风险定量评估提供依据。

Risk reasoning on navigation process of LNG-fueled ship based on two-dimensional gray cloud model

Aiming at the problem of multi-dimensional attributes of risk and the performance when facing multiple risks during the ship navigation,a risk reasoning method for the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship based on the two-dimensional gray cloud model was proposed.Firstly,aiming at two operation modes of LNG usage and ship navigation during the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship,the systematic method was adopted to identify the influencing factor system forming the safety risk,then the change weights of indexes under each risk system under the two modes were determined,and the probabilities and consequences of LNG and ship accidents during the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship were described.Secondly,the cloud model was introduced to comprehensively calculate the combined risk of probability and consequence under the two operating tasks.Finally,the gray cloud reasoning rules were used to reason the risk in the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship when the two operating modes coexisted.The data application showed that the risks of LNG usage and ship navigation during the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship were coupled,and the risk degree was controlled.The two-dimensional gray cloud model can effectively analyze the risk assessment problem under the multi-dimensional attributes,and can also analyze the risk coupling effect under different operations.