基于改进风险矩阵法的配气站地震事件序列分析*

为了对天然气配气站进行抗震安全评估，以某天然气配气站为研究对象，通过分析地震事件序列，建立风险矩阵模型，研究系统失效原因及失效概率，评估事件发生后果。结果表明:事件C5，C6风险值相对较低，分别为18.75和15.24；风险矩阵模型能有效减小尖锐边界影响，为配气站采取抗震措施提供理论依据。

Analysis of seismic event sequence in gas distribution station based on improved risk matrix method

In order to evaluate the seismic safety of urban natural gas distribution stations,the method of system modeling and analysis in the seismic field of nuclear power plants was used for reference.Taking the leakage event as an example,a model for the event sequence of gas distribution station under the earthquake damage was established.In order to solve the problem of inaccurate failure data in the analysis,a calculation method of the event risk value was proposed,and the order relation method and the improved risk matrix method were adopted to conduct the event sequence analysis.The results showed that the risk values of events C5 and C6 were the lowest as 18.75 and 15.24,respectively.At the same time,the risk matrix model on the seismic event sequence of gas distribution station established in this paper effectively reduced the influence of sharp boundary conditions when using the risk matrix evaluation,which is of great significance for the further seismic probabilistic safety evaluation.