基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的无线闭塞中心风险评估*

为客观地对无线闭塞中心进行风险评估，建立基于博弈赋权物元和证据理论的评估模型，根据故障树分析法识别的风险因子构建评估指标体系，采用博弈论思想对直觉模糊层次分析法计算的主观权重和熵权法计算的客观权重进行最优组合，进而确定综合权重。运用物元理论和证据理论确定各指标的风险等级和系统整体风险等级，并通过实例分析对评估模型进行对比验证。结果表明:无线闭塞中心整体风险等级为“可容许的”，与实际情况相符。其中，系统外部通信故障的风险等级为“不期望的”，需要对其相关设备加强风险控制。

Risk assessment of radio block center based on game weighting matter-element and evidence theory

In order to assess the risk of radio block center scientifically and objectively,a risk assessment model based on the game weighting matter-element and evidence theory was established.Firstly,according to the risk factors identified by the fault tree analysis,an evaluation index system was constructed.Secondly,the thought of game theory was used to optimally combine the subjective weights determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method and the objective weights calculated by the entropy weight method,thus the comprehensive weight was determined.Finally,the matter-element theory and evidence theory were used to determine the risk level of each index and the overall risk level of the system,and the assessment model was compared and verified by the example analysis.The results showed that the overall risk level of radio block center was “admissible”,which was consistent with the actual situation.Among them,the risk level of external communication failure of the system was “unexpected”,so it was necessary to strengthen the risk control of its related equipments.