基于云模型的富水岩溶隧道涌水风险评价*

为适应风险因素不确定性、随机性及动态反馈性等特点，建立新型富水岩溶隧道涌水风险评价体系，提出1种基于云模型的模糊综合评价方法。选取5个1级指标、29个2级指标构建评价指标体系；综合层次分析、熵权与加权平均计算法合理分配各指标权重；利用云生成算法计算出云数字特征参数并生成足够数量的云滴；将方法应用于贵州省某隧道涌水风险评价。结果表明:隧道综合云模型云滴大部分处于“中度风险”与“高度风险”之间，与实际开挖及地质雷达分析结果一致。所提出的基于云模型的模糊综合评价法对富水岩溶隧道涌水风险评估提供良好的实践参考，为日后隧道质量控制和寿命评估提供参考。

Risk evaluation of water inrush in water-rich karst tunnel based on cloud model

To adapt to the characteristics of uncertainty,randomness and dynamic feedback of risk factors,a new risk evaluation system for the water inrush of water-rich karst tunnel was established,and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the cloud model was proposed.5 level-1 indicators and 29 level-2 indicators were selected to construct the evaluation indicator structure.The combination of hierarchical analysis,entropy weighting and weighted average calculation methods was used to reasonably allocate the weight of each indicator.The cloud generation algorithm was used to calculate the cloud digital characteristic parameters and generate a sufficient number of cloud droplets.This method was applied to the water inrush risk assessment of a tunnel in Guizhou Province.The results showed that most of the cloud droplets in the comprehensive cloud model were between“medium risk”and“high risk”,which was consistent with the results of actual excavation and geological radar analysis.The proposed fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model provides a good practical reference for the risk assessment of water inrush in the water-rich karst tunnel,and provides a reference for future tunnel quality control and life estimation.