Predicting ozone-induced soybean losses: sensitivity to model form and inputs

In this study, alternative dose-response equations for assessing the effects of O3 on soybeans (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) were established. For each of three soybean cultivars, three models (linear, quadratic, and Weibull) were fitted to relate different measures of O3 dose, during the soybean flowering maturity period, to the soybean yield. The dose measures were 7-h (9:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.) and 12-h (7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.) means, 7-h and 12-h total doses, and the 90th and 75th percentile O3 concentrations. Using data for primarily rural and small city O3 monitoring sites, county-level O3 doses were calculated, and soybean losses due to O3 were predicted for Illinois, Kentucky, and Virginia. The sensitivity of O3-induced soybean loss predictions to model forms and inputs was determined with regard to: (1) inter-year differences in ambient O3, (2) differences among the six dose measures, (3) differences among the three different model forms, (4) the impact of the agricultural practice of double-cropped soybean production, and (5) variance in response to O3 among three different soybean cultivars.