上海城市拓展及其环境影响的模拟研究

采用基于元胞自动机的SLEUTH模型模拟上海市1988-2004年间的城市化进程.上海地区的发展进程主要是以中必向外围拓展的面状城市化,加之沿交通干线的线状城市化.城市化的主要影响因子包括人口增长和经济增长,SLEUTH模型与系统动力学模型相耦合,模拟了3个情景设置(基础情景、生态优先情景和道路交通规划引导情景)下20...

A simulation of the urban expansion in Shanghai and its environmental impact

At present, due to the rapid development of urbanization in our country, the evaluation of the environmental impacts of urban planning was critical important. Shanghai was regarded as the most urbanized city in China. In this study the SLEUTH model based on Cellular Automata was applied to simulate the process of urbanization in Shanghai during 1987-2004. It was suggested that Shanghai was characterized as urban expansion from downtown to periphery and urban expansion along the trunk roads. The main factors contributed to urban expansion shifted from population increase in the early periods to the economic development after 2002. A comprehensive model based on System Dynamics (SD) integrated with SLEUTH model was used to simulate the impacts of the urban expansion on society, economy and especially the ecological environment from 2005 to 2020. Three scenarios were established, including urban expansion with the current trend (basic scenario), with ecological restriction (scenario A) and the road traffic plan (scenario B). The results showed that the implementation of road traffic plan would significantly cause the faster urban expansion, while ecological restriction scenario would guide the higher land use efficiency. Three scenarios resulted in similar registered population, but quite different in both industrial and domestic waster emissions. The road traffic plan would lead to more emissions than the plan with ecological restriction, and the increasing tendency of industry emission was higher than that of domestic emission, which validated that the historic simulation conclusion that the major factor contribute to urban expansion was due to the economic increase index. Rational plan and appropriate restrictions on urban expansion would not only lead to a well-functioning economy, but also an improving urban environment.