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Precipitation-driven decrease in wildfires in British Columbia
Authors:Andrea Meyn  Sebastian Schmidtlein  Stephen W. Taylor  Martin P. Girardin  Kirsten Thonicke  Wolfgang Cramer
Affiliation:1. Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V., Telegraphenberg A62, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
2. Department of Geography, University of Bonn, 53115, Bonn, Germany
3. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC, V8Z 1M5, Canada
4. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., Stn., Sainte-Foy, PO Box 10380, Quebec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada
5. Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), UMR CNRS 7263/IRD 237, 13545, Aix-en-Provence, France
Abstract:Trends of summer precipitation and summer temperature and their influence on trends in summer drought and area burned in British Columbia (BC) were investigated for the period 1920–2000. The complexity imposed by topography was taken into account by incorporating high spatial resolution climate and fire data. Considerable regional variation in trends and in climate–fire relationships was observed. A weak but significant increase in summer temperature was detected in northeastern and coastal BC, whereas summer precipitation increased significantly in all regions—by up to 45.9 %. A significant decrease in province-wide area burned and at the level of sub-units was strongly related to increasing precipitation, more so than to changing temperature or drought severity. A stronger dependence of area burned on precipitation, a variable difficult to predict, implies that projected changes in future area burned in this region may yield higher uncertainties than in regions where temperature is predominantly the limiting factor for fire activity. We argue that analyses of fire–climate relationships must be undertaken at a sufficiently high resolution such that spatial variability in limiting factors on area burned like precipitation, temperature, and drought is captured within units.
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