基于主成分分析的湖南省城市雾霾灾害风险评估

近年来,我国各大城市雾霾频发,严重影响城市可持续发展。城市雾霾灾害风险诱因多、影响广,开展城市雾霾灾害风险研究具有重要意义。借鉴区域灾害系统理论,从孕灾环境敏感性、雾霾成分危害性和承灾体易损性3个方面选取了12个城市雾霾风险评估指标,运用主成分分析法,对湖南省14个地级城市雾霾风险进行定量评价。结果表明:①城市经济发展水平、机动车辆的数量、第二产业占比、煤炭消费量、房屋施工面积等对城市雾霾灾害风险的影响较大。②湖南省城市雾霾灾害风险度地域差异明显,长株潭城市群雾霾灾害风险极高,以其为中心向南、北、西三个方向逐渐降低。

Risk Assessment of Urban Haze Disaster in Hunan Province Based on Principal Component Analysis

In recent years,haze occurs frequently in major cities in China,which brings great inconvenience to people’s production and life.However,there are many causes and wide impacts of urban haze,and the causes and impacts of urban haze in different regions are different.Therefore,studying the risk of urban haze is possessed with crucial significance.According to the theory of regional disaster system,we determine 12 indexes to evaluate the risk of urban haze from three aspects:the sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment,the perniciousness of the haze elements and the vulnerability of the suffered object of disaster.The risk of haze in 14 prefecture level cities of Hunan Province was evaluated quantitatively by principal component analysis.The results show that:(1)The level of economic development of a city,the number of motor vehicles,the degree of dependence of economic development on the secondary industry,the amount of coal consumption,and the size of population density have a greater impact on the risk of urban haze disaster.(2)There are obvious regional differences in the risk degree of haze disaster in Hunan Province,which is highest in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan.In their center,they are gradually descending in three directions:South,North and West.