1961-2018年中国风速均值和极端值的时空演变特征

基于1961-2018年中国545个气象观测站点的日值平均风速、最大风速和极大风速数据,采用多种数理统计方法,从气候态特征、长期变化趋势、年际波动特征和1990年前后的差异特征诊断气候变暖背景下近58年来中国风速均值和极端值的时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)1961-2018年中国平均风速具有南低、北高的空间分异特征,而最大风速和极大风速则呈现东南低、西北高的空间分异特征,且两者的空间相关系数达0.71(n=15 642),通过了0.01显著性水平的检验。平均风速、最大风速和极大风速在1991-2018年相比1961-1990年整体以偏小为主。(2)中国平均风速、最大风速和极大风速年代距平从1960年代至2010年代逐渐由正距平为主演变为负距平为主,且1960、1970和1980年代以正距平为主,而1990、2000和2010年代以负距平为主。(3)1961-2018年中国平均风速、最大风速和极大风速均以减少趋势为主,并具有区域性和次区域性特征,其中后两者的空间相关系数达0.75(n=15 642),通过了0.01显著性水平的检验。最大风速和极大风速在1990年前后的趋势差异具有较高的空间一致性。(4)1961-2018年中国平均风速在西部地区波动相对较大,最大风速和极大风速的波动特征具有空间相似性,空间相关系数达0.57(n=15 642),通过了0.01显著性水平的检验。平均风速、最大风速和极大风速在1991-2018年相比1961-1990年波动偏大的地区明显多于偏小的地区。

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Mean and Extreme Wind Speed in China During 1961-2018

Based on the daily average wind speed,maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed data of 545 meteorological observation stations in China from 1961 to 2018,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of mean and extreme wind speed in China in the past 58 years under the background of climate warming are diagnosed by using a variety of mathematical statistical methods from the characteristics of climate state,long-term change trend,interannual fluctuation and differences before and after 1990.The results show that:(1)China’s average wind speed has the spatial differentiation characteristics of low in the south and high in the north from 1961 to 2018,while the maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed have the spatial differentiation characteristics of low in the southeast and high in the northwest,and their spatial correlation coefficient is 0.71(n=15642),passing the test of 0.01 significance level.The average wind speed,maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed in 1991-2018 are smaller than those in 1961-1990.(2)The decadal anomaly of average wind speed,maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed in China gradually change from positive anomaly to negative anomaly from 1960s to 2010s,and in 1960s,1970s and 1980s,positive anomaly was dominant,while in 1990s,2000 and 2010,negative anomaly was dominant.(3)China’s average wind speed,maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed are mainly decreasing,with regional and sub regional characteristics from 1961 to 2018,.The spatial correlation coefficient of the latter two is 0.75(n=15642),passing the test of 0.01 significance level.The trend difference between the maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed before and after 1990 has a high spatial consistency.(3)The average wind speed in China fluctuated relatively large in the western region from 1961 to 2018.The fluctuation characteristics of the maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed have spatial similarity,and the spatial correlation coefficient reaches 0.57(n=15642),passing the test of 0.01 significance level.The fluctuation of average wind speed,maximum 10-minute average wind speed and instantaneous maximum wind speed is more in the area with large fluctuation during 1991-2018 than in the area with smaller fluctuation during 1961-1990.