基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员先验在室率研究

破坏性地震发生后,科学、有效地评估地震压埋人员压埋情况,是有序地开展应急救援工作的基础。人员在室率作为压埋率评估模型的主要参数之一,目前主要以作息时间区为基础以省或市为基础单元进行计算,这难以体现基础单元之下的不同市或县人员在室率之间的差异性。为解决这一问题,采用人类动力学相关原理,运用极大似然法估算人员在室率,进而形成基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员压埋率预估模型。最后以汶川8.0级地震部分受灾学校为例,进行压埋率实际评估和模型误差分析。研究表明:提出的微观在室率能更准确地反映人员在室情况具有更好的适用性;在实际评估中模型精度达到±0.13,表明模型能达到较好的预估效果,能为震后应急救援工作提供一定的参考。

Research on Indoor Rate of The Earthquake Buried Personnel Based on Human Dynamics

After the occurrence of destructive earthquake,the scientific and effective assessment of the buried rate of the earthquake buried personnel,is the basis of orderly emergency rescue work.As one of the main parameters of the buried rate prediction model,the indoor rate of personnel is mainly calculated based on the work and rest zones and based on the provincial or municipal basic unit,which is difficult to reflect the difference between the indoor rate of personnel in different cities or counties under the basic unit.In order to solve this problem,the maximum likelihood method is used to calculate the indoor rate of personnel based on the theory of human dynamics.Then,the buried rate prediction model of the earthquake buried personnel based on Human dynamics is developed.Finally,taking the schools affected by the M8.0 earthquake in Wenchuan,Sichuan province as an example,the actual evaluation of the burial rate and the model error analysis are carried out.The results show that the microscopic indoor rate of personnel proposed in this paper can reflect the situation of personnel indoor situation more accurately and has better applicability.And in the actual evaluation,the accuracy of the model reaches±0.13,which indicates that the model can achieve better prediction effect and provide certain reference for the emergency rescue work after the earthquake.