基于综合灾害风险防范模式的台风灾害防御效益评价研究初探

以综合灾害风险防范模式作为理论基础,从中国气象防灾减灾工作机制的特点出发,结合当前的社会学和经济学研究方法,构建包含气象服务水平评价、灾害防御行为评价的防灾减灾综合效益评价指标体系,涵盖从前期预报预警,到后期灾害应对的3个一级指标,8个二级指标和17个三级指标;并基于社会学调查的技术方法,实时跟踪2017-2018年登...

Preliminary Study on Benefit Evaluation of Disaster Prevention of Typhoon Based on Integrated Disaster Risk Governance Model

This paper is based on the integrated disaster risk governance theory,and the characteristics of China’s meteorological disaster prevention and reduction work mechanism,combined with current sociological and economic methods,to construct an evaluation about the disaster prevention including meteorological service ability and disaster prevention behavior.The index system covers 3 first-level indicators,8 second-level indicators and 17 third-level indicators from weather forecast and early warning to disaster response from government,professional department and public.Based on the method of social survey,the research were tracked 17 tropical cyclone processes that landed on eastern China from 2017 to 2018.According the investigation of local public,government agencies and social linkage departments,carried out a benefit evaluation study on typhoon disaster prevention.The results shows that this method is available to find out the number of casualties avoided,the public’s reduction in economic losses,and the integrated benefit value from 2017 to 2018.The research conclusion can provide a scientific basis for the government and stakeholders to conduct cost-benefit accounting and improve the comprehensive defense capability of meteorological disasters.