Estimating river flow effects on water ages by hydrodynamic modeling in Little Manatee River estuary, Florida, USA

The water age in a tidal river in Florida, Little Manatee River, has been investigated in this study by the application of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. In response to a pulse dye release in the upper end of the river boundary, the hydrodynamic model determines the water age for a given location by recording the time for the dye to reach the given river location. The hydrodynamic model uses horizontal curvilinear orthogonal grids to represent the complex river system that includes several bayous and tributaries. The model has was calibrated and verified in previous study by using two continuous data sets for a 6 month period. Satisfactory model verifications indicate that the hydrodynamic model is capable of quantifying the mixing and transport process for calculating the water age in the tidal river. For 17 freshwater inflow scenarios in the Little Manatee River, the hydrodynamic model was applied to simulate water ages along the main channel of the river at 2-km interval. Flow rates in the 17 scenarios varying from 0.26 to 76.56 m³/s cover the range of the observed flows in the Little Manatee River. Water ages from model predictions range from the minimum 1.2 days under the maximum 76.56 m³/s inflow condition to the 50 days under the minimum 0.26 m³/s inflow condition. Empirical regression equations at three selected stations, with the correlation coefficient R² above 0.96, were derived from numerical model simulations to correlate water ages to freshwater inflows. The empirical water-age equation derived from hydrodynamic model simulations can be used to provide quick and low-cost estimations of water ages in response to various inflow scenarios for studying physical–chemical and biological processes in the river.