基于核密度估计的清代中国自然灾害时空分布特征

基于《清史·灾赈志》中的历史灾害信息，提取清代（1644-1911年）自然灾害共24 537县次，重建逐年灾害频次序列，以核密度估计法对5类主要灾害（水灾、旱灾、蝗灾、疫灾、冷害）的空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明:清代自然灾害频次序列没有明显的趋势性特征，而体现为阶段性波动，基于灾害频次30年滑动平均值可提取出4个峰值时段（1644-1673、1721-1750、1812-1841和1872-1901年）；相比于现代，清代灾害类型更加集中在农业灾害，最为多发的是水灾和旱灾，合计占总数的近80%，其次是蝗灾、疫灾和冷害；灾害最为多发的高风险区分布在黄淮海平原和长江三角洲，前者集中了水灾、旱灾、蝗灾的极端多发区，后者除了水旱多发，还是疫灾和冷害的极端多发区； 4个峰值时段的灾种类型组合和灾害多发区均有明显差异，时空变化受到致灾因子、暴露度和脆弱性因素的共同作用。上述工作有助于更好地认识历史灾害发生规律，对于当前及未来的防灾减灾工作具有重要参考价值。

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Natural Disasters in China during 1644-1911 based on Kernel Density Estimation

Based on the information about historical disasters kept in the Qing History, counties suffered from natural disasters during the Qing dynasty (1644-1911AD) were identified year by year, which sum to 24 537, and annual frequency series of disaster was reconstructed. Spatial distribution of 5 main disasters (flood, drought, locust plague, epidemic, and cold damage) was analyzed with kernel density estimation.①There was no significant trend in frequency series, but fluctuation by phases, and four peak periods could be identified with 30-year running average, namely 1644-1673, 1721-1750, 1812-1841 and 1872-1901AD.②Compared with modern times, more agricultural disasters were kept in the statistics of Qing dynasty, which means about 80% of the total was flood and drought, and then locust plague, epidemic, and cold damage.③Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Yangtze River Delta were the most significant hotspots where natural disasters were concentrated. Flood, drought and locust plague occurred most frequently in the former, while epidemic and cold damage in the latter.④The composition of typical disasters and temporal distribution of all disasters varied in four peak periods, which was caused by physical characteristics of disasters, exposure, and vulnerability of social ecosystem. These conclusions could be helpful for the improvement of knowledge about the occurrence regulation of historical disasters, and provide important references for disaster prevention and mitigation in the present and future.