农作物自然灾害暴露研究进展

随着气候变化与全球变化进程,未来农作物自然灾害损失风险不断加剧,给全球粮食安全带来极大威胁,评估农作物损失成为灾害风险研究关注的热点问题。目前暴露对风险的贡献已然超过气候变化的影响,导致在损失评估过程中如何进行农作物暴露的刻画与衡量显得尤为重要。该文综合国内外现有研究,首先梳理了不同视角下的农作物暴露定义,认为暴露需要以时空维度去理解,能够体现出其对灾情的放大或缩小影响;其次,总结了农作物暴露的三种空间维度指标与相应时间维度指标;最后,归纳了农作物种植范围、产量、经济价值以及时间维指标的常用计算方法与模型,以期能够更加系统、全面地理解暴露,满足灾害系统复杂性研究需求,为风险定量评价提供科学支持。

Review on Crop Exposure of Natural Disasters

With the process of climate change and global change,the risk of future crop losses caused by natural disasters is increasing,which poses a great threat to global food security.The assessment of crop losses has become a hot issue in disaster risk research.The current contribution of exposure to risk has exceeded climate change s influence,which makes it particularly important to describe and measure crop exposure in its loss risk assessment.This paper firstly focuses on the definition of crop exposure from different perspectives,and it is believed that the exposure needs to be understood by space and time dimension,which can reflect its amplification or reduction effect on disaster losses.Secondly,three kinds of spatial dimension indicators and the corresponding time dimension indicators of crop exposure are summarized.Finally,it sums up the calculation methods and models of crop range,yield,economic value and time dimension indicators,to understand the exposure connotation more systematically and comprehensively,meet the needs of disaster system complexity research and provide scientific support for quantitative risk assessment.