基于组合赋权理论的泥石流孕灾因子分析

针对地质灾害易发性评价指标识别与构建的问题,以准确获取吉林省泥石流孕灾因子权重系数为目标,采用"3S"技术获取大量数据为基础,选取对吉林省泥石流易发性有显著影响的地貌、坡度、地势高程等7个孕灾因子,首次将偏好比率法与粗糙集理论组合赋权并优化,分析吉林省泥石流孕灾因子权重,并将分析结果与以往所采用的方法所取得的权重结果进行对比,结果表明:坡度、植被覆盖率、地势高程、人口密集度因素对吉林省泥石流发育影响较显著,与以往方法相比,植被覆盖率对吉林省泥石流易发性的影响显著提高,岩组的影响显著降低,在ARCGIS平台下开展评价,证明该方法取得结果与实地灾情较好吻合。研究成果对地质灾害风险评价及防灾减灾具有重要参考价值。

Analysis of Debris Flow Hazard Factors Based on Combination Weighting Theory

Based on the problem of identification and construction of geological hazard susceptibility evaluation index, aiming at accurately obtaining the weight coefficients of mud-rock flow disaster-prone factors in Jilin Province, 7 disaster-prone factors, such as landform, slope and topographic elevation, were selected for the first time by using “3S” technology to obtain a large number of data. The weights of debris flow disaster pregnant factors in Jilin Province were analyzed by combining preference ratio method with rough set theory. The results were compared with the weights obtained by previous methods. The results showed that slope, vegetation coverage, topographic elevation and population density affected the debris flow development in Jilin Province. Compared with the previous methods, vegetation coverage has a significant impact on the susceptibility of debris flow in Jilin Province, and the impact of rock formations has been significantly reduced. The research results have important reference value for geological disaster risk assessment and disaster prevention and mitigation.