云南省橡胶树白粉病流行天气适宜度预报研究

利用云南橡胶种植区内3个代表气象站1980-2015年2-4月逐日气象资料、橡胶树第一蓬叶生长期间白粉病灾情史料,进行橡胶树白粉病流行天气适宜度的研究。给出连续出现橡胶白粉病最适宜病日的持续时间修正系数,建立橡胶树白粉病流行天气适宜度指数模型,由此判别橡胶白粉病流行天气适宜程度。2016年、2017年和2018年景洪市试报结果与实况相符。应用本研究方法,可动态监测橡胶白粉病流行天气适宜度,预测未来7d内橡胶白粉病可能流行的程度,为科学防治橡胶白粉病提供决策依据。

Study on Dynamic Forecast of the Suitability Degree of Rubber Powdery Mildew Weather Condition in Yunnan Province

By employing the daily meteorological data of 3 typical meteorological stations in Yunnan rubber planting area, during February to April from 1980 to 2015, and powdery mildew disaster historical data, the suitability degree of rubber powdery mildew weather condition was studied. Giving out the coefficient, which correct the effects of the duration of the continuously most appropriate day on the seriousness of powdery mildew. The coefficient was integrated into a model calculating the suitability degree index of rubber powdery. According to the calculated suitability degree index, suitability of wearther conditions for rubber powdery mildew were determined. The occurrence categories predicted by the model agreed with historical fact well from 2016 to 2018 in Jinghong country. The model developed in this study can be practically used to dynamically monitor the suitability of wearther conditions for the infection and outbreak of rubber powdery mildew and predict the possible seriousness of rubber powdery mildew within the future 7 days. It can offer the decision basis for the prevention and control of rubber powdery mildew.