国内农业台风灾害风险评估研究进展

台风是中国沿海地区复杂的灾害系统,尤其是农业生产深受台风灾害的影响。从灾害风险的形成机制出发,对台风灾害的发灾场、致灾力、承灾体,以及农业台风灾害风险评估方法及应用进行了全面综述。总结现有研究发现,国内学者主要是通过移动路径和最大风速来确定台风的发灾场范围,使用大风、暴雨及其共同影响来衡量台风的致灾力,运用遥感技术提取农作物面积表达承灾体的暴露性,并对区域尺度的防灾减灾能力进行了研究。在灾害风险评估上,数理方法与GIS的结合成为了主流,但方法的合理性和有效性仍待提高,风险评估实例仍然集中在大中尺度的研究上。农业台风灾害风险的理论研究、评估工作的精细化及动态化将成为今后的研究重点。

Review of Typhoon Disaster Risk Assessment for Agriculture in China

Typhoon is a complex disaster systemin coastal areas of China,which has severely disrupted agricultural production.Based on natural disaster risk formation mechanism,we summarize the disaster occurred place,disaster force and disaster body and agricultural disaster risk assessment.According to the overview,the scope of disaster occurred place is determined by motion path and maximum wind speed,and disaster force is characterized bygale,rainstorm and their joint action.As for disaster body,remote sensing technology is used to extract crop areadata as the exposure,and the disaster resistance of region isoften studied.In order to assess the typhoon risk,the combination ofmathematical methods and GIS has become mainstream method,but the reasonableness and effectiveness of themethod needs to be improved.While,the research cases often concentrate on large and middle regions.Consequently,risk assessment theory,accurate and dynamic risk assessment oftyphoon disaster risk for agriculture will become the key point in the future study.