东南地区引发地质灾害降水分型及阈值分析

降水是引发地质灾害的最重要因素。该文综合利用2013-2016年东南地区(浙、闽、粤三省)地质灾害数据、国家气象中心逐小时降水量资料,通过对灾害特征和降水量等资料的统计,初步分析了降水因子与地质灾害的关系,并重点针对地质灾害的降水影响因子进行灾害降水的分型,根据降水分型(短临降水型、短时降水型、短期降水型、长历时降水型),基于最小临界雨量法,建立了各类型降水在东南地区的引发地质灾害的降水阈值分布。利用该降水阈值的分布特征,检验了2017年的各分类降水引发地质灾害的降水量,发现阈值雨量的判别方法较为科学,具有较强的参考价值。

Precipitation Type and Threshold Analysis of Geological Disasters in Southeast

Precipitation is the most important factor leading to geological disasters. Based on the data of geological hazards in Southeast China (Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces) from 2013 to 2016 and the hourly precipitation data of the National Meteorological Center, the relationship between precipitation factors and geological hazards is preliminarily analyzed through the statistics of disaster characteristics and precipitation data, and the hazards are focused on the precipitation impact factors of geological hazards. According to the precipitation classification (short-impending precipitation, short-term precipitation, short-term precipitation and long-term precipitation), the precipitation threshold distribution of various types of precipitation in Southeast China was established based on the minimum critical rainfall method. Based on the distribution characteristics of the threshold precipitation, the precipitation of geological hazards caused by various types of precipitation in 2017 is tested. It is found that the method for distinguishing the threshold precipitation is scientific and has a strong reference value.