基于熵权的长沙市城市生态安全综合评估与预测

城市是一个社会-经济-自然复合生态系统,区域资源与城市自然系统是城市社会经济发展的重要基础和载体。城市生态安全评估是对未来的安全状态进行预测,以实现城市的可持续发展。文章以长沙市为例,在城市生态安全主要影响因素识别的基础上,应用PSR模型、熵权法等建立城市生态安全评估指标及计算方法,研究了长沙市近11年来生态安全的变化趋势。研究结果表明,1999-2009年间长沙生态安全的趋势由较不安全向较安全状态发展,生态安全值从25.4提高到60.7,人文环境响应是长沙生态安全改善的主导因素,资源环境压力,水土资源保持是限制长沙市生态安全的主要因素。

Assessment and Forecast for Ecological Security Based on Entropy Weight Method:A Case Study of Changsha,China

Regional resource and urban natural system are important carriers and foundation of urban socio-economic development.Urban ecological security assessment is to forecast the potential status of ecological security,thereby contributing to sustainable ecological security management.An approach for urban ecological security evaluation was established applying pressure-state-response(PSR)model and entropy weight method,the index system of urban ecological security evaluation was put forward based on main influencing factors of urban ecological security.The potential ecological insecurity factors were identified and degree of urban ecological security was analyzed from 1999 to 2009 in Changsha,Hunan Province.The assessment indicated that the trend of ecological security in Changsha has improved from less security to safety state,with ecological security value increasing from 25.4 to 60.7.The dominant factor is the response of humanistic environment,and critical factors will be the conditions of resource-environmental pressure,water resource stress.The study would provide reference for Changsha eco-city development.