首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     


The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?
Authors:Jan Rotmans  Rob Swart
Affiliation:(1) National Institute for Public Health and Environmental Protection, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Abstract:In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO2 emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO2 concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.
Keywords:Greenhouse effect  Climate change policy  Scenario analysis  Greenhouse policy model  Carbon dioxide emissions
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号