基于模糊逻辑理论的应急决策冲突程度表示方法研究

针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中的冲突问题，提出1种应急决策冲突程度的表示方法，将应急决策冲突定量表示出来。基于模糊逻辑理论对应急决策冲突进行模糊评价；通过构建“大多数”的模糊函数，确定冲突程度的表示路径；根据冲突与一致性的相对关系，对“一致性程度”的模糊函数进行改造，构建“冲突程度”的模糊函数，并通过冲突程度的计算过程，得到最终的冲突程度；结合应急决策冲突实际，划分冲突等级，并确定其取值范围。研究结果表明:基于模糊逻辑理论的应急决策冲突程度表示方法充分利用了应急决策专家的决策偏好信息，实现了应急决策冲突程度的定量表示。

Research on representation method for conflict degree of emergency decision making based on fuzzy logic theory

Aiming at the problem of conflict in the emergency decision making process of sudden disaster accidents, a representation method for the conflict degree of emergency decision making was put forward to quantitatively represent the conflict of emergency decision making. The fuzzy evaluation on the conflict of emergency decision making was carried out based on the fuzzy logic theory, and the representation paths of conflict degree were determined by constructing the “majority” fuzzy functions. According to the relative relationship between conflict and consistency, the fuzzy function of “consistency degree” was reformed to construct the fuzzy function of “conflict degree”, and the final conflict degree was obtained through the calculation process of conflict degree. The conflict levels were divided and their value ranges were determined by combining with the actual emergency decision making conflict. The results showed that the representation method for the conflict degree of emergency decision making based on the fuzzy logic theory realized the quantitative representation on the conflict degree of emergency decision making with fully utilizing the decision making preference information of emergency decision making experts.