浙江省耕地变化与粮食安全的分析及预测

运用回归分析方法、预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型及Excel软件，在分析浙江省改革开放以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上，分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点，运用预测理论对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示：1978～2004年，浙江省耕地面积、粮食产量呈下降趋势，人口数量逐年增加，从而造成最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现增大趋势。这表明此期粮食供需差距越来越大。在未来15年，人口数量进一步增加，耕地和人均耕地面积降低明显，最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数却呈降低趋势，这依赖于耕地生产力水平的提高，但耕地仍严重超载，粮食安全问题仍将十分突出，形势比较严峻。据此提出降低耕地压力、保证粮食生产安全、促进可持续发展的对策。

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF CROPLAND CHANGE AND GRAIN SECURITY IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

By using regression analysis and prognostic theory,the minimum cropland acreage per capita,and cropland pressure index model were analyzed with the consideration of changes in cropland,population and grain output since enforcement of the reforming policy.The cropland,population,grain output,minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index were forecasted for the following 15 years.It was found that between 1978 and 2004 both the cropland and the grain output declined in contrast to the annual population growth,resulting in the rise of minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland,and consequently broadening the gap between the grain supply and need.With the rising population and the obvious decline of cropland acreage per capita in the following 15 years,minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland will also show some degree of decline.However, the boost of cropland productivity is at the cost of over exploitation on the cropland,leaving the grain issue still quite critical.Thus,countermeasures for the reduction of cropland pressure,guarantee of grain output security and sustainable development were proposed in this paper.