A simulation model of carbon and oxygen dynamics in a reservoir

The CORES model represents the long-term carbon and oxygen dynamics of the Conowingo Reservoir. The model, formulated using subsetted historical data, is readily validated using the remaining historical data for all state variables of importance. Sensitivity analyses make it clear that the flux of particulate organic carbon from upstream sources and its subsequent “trapping” and metabolism in the deeper regions of the reservoir are the major factors controlling the oxygen declines historically observed in the summer months. Increased natural vertical mixing (i.e., transport of oxygen from shallow to deep waters) can increase deep-water oxygen concentrations to some extent, but not to the degree necessary to meet water quality standards. Air-to-water diffusion adds substantial quantities of oxygen to surface waters in these mixing events. Simple solutions, such as requiring continuous flow, do not appear to adequately increase the dissolved oxygen levels in the deeper portion of the reservoir.