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Modelling Interactions Between Economic Activity, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Biodiversity and Agricultural Production |
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| Authors: | Manfred Lenzen Christopher Dey Barney Foran Asaph Widmer-Cooper Ralf Ohlemüller Moira Williams Thomas Wiedmann |
| Institution: | 1. ISA, School of Physics, A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia 2. School of Chemistry F11, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia 3. Geography Department, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand 4. School of Biological Sciences A08, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia 5. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia |
| Abstract: | In this article, we develop a modelling approach which examines selected drivers of ecosystem functioning and agricultural productivity. In particular, we develop linkages between land use and biodiversity and between biodiversity and agricultural productivity. We review the literature for quantitative estimates of key relationships and their parameters for modelling human consumption, land use, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions on biodiversity and agricultural productivity. We assemble these specifications into an iterative causal model and carry out a number of scenario projections of country-level consumption, production, land use, energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, species diversity, and agricultural production up to 2050. Finally, we dissect the projections into key drivers using structural decomposition and sensitivity analyses. |
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