灰色预测法在设备状态趋势预报中的应用

分析了设备运行状态的特征 ,运用灰色系统理论对设备状态特征量——振动烈度 ,建立了灰色预测模型。计算结果表明 ,预测模型的计算值与实际测定值非常接近 ,而且可进一步预报设备运行状态趋势。灰色预测法的引进 ,丰富了设备状态监测与故障诊断技术学科的基础理论 ,推动了该学科向更高水平发展 ,预示了该学具有更广阔的应用前景。

Application of Grey Prediction in Monitoring and Forecasting the Equipment Condition

Based on analysis of the characteristics of equipment operation, and according to the vibration intensity, a grey prediction model is established by use of grey system theory. It is shown that the result of model calculation is very close to the measured data, and that further forecast on the tendency of the equipment condition could possibly be made by this model. Introduction of grey prediction into the plant engineering could enrich the basic theory of condition monitoring and fault diagnostic technique, so as to promote the development of this discipline towards a higher level and a wider application prospect.