A Forecast Model Of Refuse Tonnage With Recapture And Uncertainty Bounds

A spreadsheet model for forecasting solid waste tonnages is described. The model uses generation coefficients from the technical literature associated with individual material components (paper, glass, metals, plastics and rubber, organic materials, construction waste, inerts and other) to express the amount of waste produced per capita and per employee in the labor force. Estimates of quantities being generated by two major groups, namely domestic and industrial/commercial/institutional sources are reflected in the model's output. Using this disaggregated format, the model estimates total waste, recaptured waste (as a result of policy initiatives), and net refuse. Confidence intervals are developed using a regression model related to the business cycle. Two worked examples are given for data obtained in Canada.