Value at Risk Perspective on Layers of Protection Analysis |
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| Institution: | 1. Departament de Ciència dels Materials i Química Física, Universitat de Barcelona, c/Marti i Franqués 1, Pta 4, 08028 Barcelona, Spain;2. ICFO-Institut de Ciències Fotòniques, The Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology, 08860 Castelldefels, Barcelona, Spain;3. Institut de Química Teòrica i Computacional (IQTCUB), Universitat de Barcelona, c/Marti i Franqués 1, Pta 4, 08028 Barcelona, Spain;1. Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins University, 600 N. Wolfe St., Meyer 2-161, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA;2. Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 720 Rutland Ave., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA;3. Department of Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins University, 600 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21287, USA;4. Center for Devices and Radiological Health, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Ave., Silver Spring, MD 20993, USA;5. Fischell Department of Bioengineering, University of Maryland, Room 2330 Jeong H. Kim Engineering Building (Bldg. # 225), College Park, MD 20742, USA |
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| Abstract: | Layers of protection analysis (LOPA) is an established tool for designing, characterizing, and evaluating risk in the chemical process industry. Value at risk (VaR) is a method first introduced in the financial sector for modeling potential loss in a complex venture. In this paper we demonstrate the application of VaR principles to the LOPA of an ethylene refrigeration compressor. We calculate the changes in risk profile (probability versus loss) associated with adding or removing different safety interlocks around the compressor. The VaR analysis shows that the benefits of a given layer of protection are not necessarily captured by a single average number, since the entire probability–value curve is affected. This type of analysis will aid in the allocation of limited resources to process risk interventions. |
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