基于火灾统计灾情数据的城市火灾风险分析

进行参数估计简单假设观察数据服从特点分布,由于条件变化,实际计算过程中往往出现不同状况下获得的数据服从不同分布的情况,从而存在假设与实际情况差异.本文介绍了信息扩散原理及其计算过程,信息扩散过程可以将一个孤立的观测值变成一个模糊集.利用上述特性,结合城市火灾统计数据给出了城市火灾风险的评估过程,确定了某市发生火灾后的损失率及其超越概率,为城市消防规划提供了技术参考.

City fire risk assessment based on statistics data

It is supposed that the observing data obey a certain distribution in most methods of parameter estimation. But in the practical surveying process, due to the different conditions, the observing data obtained under different observation conditions may obey different distributions. There is in existence that the hypothesis is not conform to reality. Information spread and it's calculating process are introduced in this paper. Based on this method, an isolated observing value can be transferred into a fuzzy aggregation. Then the data around actual point can acquire information of different degree. Using this characteristic, assessment process of city fire is brought forward integrated with city fire statistics data.