辽河流域重点行业产污强度及节水减排清洁生产潜力

基于环境统计数据，分析了辽河流域重点工业行业单位产值的新鲜用水量，COD_Cr和NH₃-N等的产生强度，并与松花江、海河、淮河流域及全国平均水平进行对比，研究了其产污特征. 建立了情景分析模型，预测了2015年在经济保持一定增长率、重点工业行业产污强度保持不同水平情景下的流域总污染物产生水平. 结果表明，2008年辽河流域工业新鲜用水强度，COD_Cr和NH₃-N产生强度均低于全国同期工业平均水平，也低于松花江、海河和淮河流域水平. 造纸及纸制品业COD_Cr产生强度为全国平均水平的5.04倍；黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业与化学原料及化学制品制造业COD_Cr产生强度、医药制造业COD_Cr和NH₃-N产生强度也较高，表明这些行业的清洁生产潜力较大. 根据辽河流域污染物产生量削减潜力情景分析，其中的高方案比较合理. 该方案下，2015年COD_Cr和NH₃-N产生量预计比2008年分别减少14%和9%，表明该方案有利于污染排放总量的削减. 

Pollution Generation Intensity of Key Industries and Water-Saving and Pollution Reduction Oriented and Clean Production Potential in Liao River Basin

Based on environmental statistics, the freshwater wastage per unit output value and pollution generation intensity of major pollutants such as COD_Cr and NH₃-N of key industries in the Liao River Basin were analyzed and compared with those of the Songhua River Basin, Hai River Basin, Huai River Basin and China’s average level. The pollution generation characteristics were then analyzed. A scenario analysis model was designed to predict the total pollutant generation levels under given economic annual growth rates and different scenarios for pollution generation intensities of key industries in the river basin in 2015. The results showed that the industrial freshwater wastage per unit output value and pollution generation intensities of COD_Cr and NH₃-N in the Liao River Basin in 2008 were lower than China’s average values, and also lower than those of the Songhua River Basin, Hai River Basin and Huai River Basin. The COD_Cr pollution generation intensity of papermaking and paper products industry was 5.04 times that of the national average level. The COD_Cr pollution generation intensities of the non-ferrous metal smelting and pressing industries and raw chemical materials and chemical product industries were high, as were the COD_Cr and NH₃-N pollution generation intensities of the medical and pharmaceutical product industry. This showed that there is great potential for developing clean production in these industries. According to the results of the scenario analysis of reduction potential of pollutant generation quantity in the Liao River Basin, under the relatively reasonable High Scenario, COD_Cr and NH₃-N generation quantities are expected to decrease by 14% and 9% respectively in 2015 compared with that of 2008, which is favorable to total reduction of pollution discharge.