Behavioral Factors as Predictors of Motor Vehicle Crashes in Young Drivers

Gains in reducing mortality and morbidity from motor vehicle crashes can be achieved by understanding the behavioral factors that contribute to the elevated risk of motor vehicle-related injury and death. This study investigates the incidence, along with the effect of driver and behavioral factors, on the likelihood of motor vehicle crashes. Seventeen year old newly licensed drivers (n = 1277) in Perth, Western Australia, were recruited and followed over the first 12 months of driving. Using Cox proportional hazard analysis, driver and behavioral factors were assessed to determine whether they predicted the likelihood of a crash in the first 12 months of driving. The crash incidence rate was higher for males (1R = 4.6/10,000 driving days) than females (IR = 3.9/10,000 driving days). Multivariate analysis indicated that drivers who reported to have driven daily prior to obtaining their learners permit (L-plates) were at an increased risk of motor vehicle crash. A twofold increase in motor vehicle crash was apparent among drivers considered to be confident-adventurous drivers compared to low to moderate levels of driver confidence-adventurousness (HR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.29-3.21). The research indicates that a driver's perception of their confidence and adventurousness in the road environment plays a part in the causal pathway leading to a motor vehicle crash. This research points to the need for preventive strategies that focus not only on knowledge and skill acquisition, but also the driver's perception in preparing young people for our roads.