渤海和黄海北部地区海冰灾害风险评估

海冰灾害是中国海洋灾害的主要灾种之一。渤海和黄海北部地区由于受冬季风带来的寒潮天气影响成为中国最主要的结冰海域。基于灾害风险理论,将研究区海岸带上17个地级市的71个县区作为评价单元,对海冰灾害风险进行评估。选取冰期天数和最大冰厚2个指标,计算致灾因子危险度指数;选取涉海人口密度、海洋经济密度、海洋一产比重等3个指标,计算承灾体脆弱性指数;综合危险度指数与脆弱性指数计算各县区的海冰灾害风险指数,并绘制风险等级图。该风险等级图揭示了海冰灾害风险在渤海和黄海北部地区海岸带上的分布状况,为中国制定海冰灾害风险防范策略提供参考。

Risk assessment of sea ice disaster in Bohai Sea and north Yellow Sea of China

Sea ice,one of the main marine disasters of China,locates mainly in Bohai Sea and north Yellow Sea.Sea ice disaster risk of coastal regions was assessed at county level based on disaster risk theory in this paper.The sea ice hazard index was calculated with entropy method by selecting 2 sub-indices,freezing days and maximum ice thickness.Similarly the counties’ vulnerability index was obtained with entropy method from 3 sub-indices,including ocean-related population density,marine economic density and the ratio of primary industry product to gross ocean product.The sea ice risk index,an index indicating the relative scales of the possible losses due to sea ice hazard,was then calculated by multiplying the hazard index by the vulnerability index,and risk maps based on the county-level risk assessment were drawn.The risk maps could provide a reference to local governments to make sea ice disaster prevention and reduction plan.