浅议风险观对风险评价方法论的影响

风险观对安全科学的发展具有重要的指导意义。本文从风险本体论、风险认识论和风险方法论三个方面论述了风险观的发展变迁。简述了风险本体论从一维、二维到三维或多维的发展历程,总结了风险认识论从技术导向到社会文化导向的变化,给出了风险方法论的分类。总结了风险方法论的重要组成部分即风险评价的发展过程,探讨了确定性风险评价、概率性风险评价和定量风险评价等评价方法在风险本体论和认识论发展背景下的继承性等问题,探讨风险本体论和认识论对风险评价方法论的影响,提出风险沟通研究的必要性。

Discussion on influence of risk concept for risk analysis methodologies

Risk concept has important guidance implication for development of safety science.The development and changes of risk concept were presented from ontology,epistemology and methodology firstly.The risk ontology was divided into three phases.The change in risk epistemology was summarized from technique-oriented to social-culture-oriented.Risk methodology was classified.As risk analysis was one of the important part in risk methodology,the development of risk analysis methodology was also summarized,and the inheritance of risk analysis methods,such as determinant risk analysis,probabilistic risk analysis and quantitative risk assessment was also discussed.Finally,the importance of risk communication research was proposed.