城市重点公共区域人群聚集风险的实时定量技术

城市公共区域人群高度聚集且流动性大,紧急状态时易发生群死群伤的拥挤踩踏事故,造成大量人员伤亡和社会负面影响。在FIST模型的基础上,提出以人员密度（D）、人员特性（C）、人与人的相互作用（I）以及人群聚集环境（E）作为表征公共场所人群聚集风险的基本参数,接下来对四个参数进行了相应的技术分析。第一,利用人群监控技术估计人群密度;第二,通过现场监测网络得到的人群压力值来表征人与人相互作用的强度;第三,忽略了个体差异对人群整体的影响;第四,把公共场所中导致事故发生的影响因子归结为综合扰动强度,并建立了相应的数学模型表征了这种强度的大小。最终建立了描述人群聚集风险的DICE模型。同时,给出了人群密度阈值、人群压力阈值以及人群聚集风险的总阈值及其判断标准,整个工作将人群聚集风险实时定量及管理技术推向了实用化的道路。

Real-time quantification technology of the crowd massing risk in urban public venues

With high density population and its great fluidness in urban public venues,crowd crushing and trampling accidents will occur in emergency that result in great casualties and negative impacts on society.Based on the FIST model,it proposes four parameters to describe the crowd massing risk in public venues that are the density（D）,mutual interaction between each others（I）,the personnel characteristics（C） and the impact derived form environmental（E） disturbance on the massing crowd.Then,it carries out the corresponding technical analysis for the four predefined parameters.First,it uses the crowd monitoring systems to estimate the crowd density on the spot;Second,the value of crowd pressure will be obtained through the pressure measurement network which describes the mutual affects between different persons;Third,it has neglected the influence of individual differences on the crowd as a whole;Fourth,it attributes all the influence factors to an index-Integrated Disturbance Intensity,then establishes the corresponding mathematical model to quantify its intensity.Finally,it builds up the DICE model as the quantification of crowd massing risk.At the same time,it puts forward the thresholds of crowd density,crowd pressure and crowd massing risk together with their judgment criteria,the whole work puts the technology of crowd massing risk quantification and management into practice.