我国高速公路交通事故趋势分析

对高速公路交通事故的主要原因、事故类型和发展趋势作了分析和预测 ,拟合出每百公里交通事故起数的预测公式 ,指出应加强对超速行车、通车初期和恶劣天气时的交通控制。分析结论是 :高速公路交通事故总体上呈下降趋势 ;事故的绝对数将继续增长 ,但每百公里事故起数将逐年平缓下降 ;在高速公路交通事故中 ,单方事故居多 ,超速行驶是引发事故的主要原因 ,追尾是事故的主要形态 ;在高速公路通车初期和恶劣气候条件下 ,事故呈上升趋势

Analysis on the Trend of Expressway Traffic Accident in China

The main causes and forms of traffic accident happened on the expressway are analyzed, and its developing trend is predicted. A prediction equation to estimate the number of accident events per 100 km is formulated. The findings demonstrate that the traffic control under the conditions of speed exceeding, early stage of traffic opening, and the bad weather should be strengthened. Analysis concludes that although as a whole the trend of traffic accident is declining, the absolute number of accident events will be continuously increasing, while the number of accident events will be gradually decreasing. Among the traffic accidents, most of them are unilateral, speed exceeding is the main cause, and the rear hit is the most common form. At the early stage of traffic opening and under the bad weather, the events of traffic accident will rise obviously.