珠三角地区人为热排放演变趋势及不确定性分析

人类生产生活中产生的大量废热对城市环境中的温度、城市边界层结构、空气质量及人类健康都有着重要的影响.然而目前人为热排放清单的计算方法存在所需基础资料种类繁多、计算过程复杂，空间分布和排放量有较大偏差等不足.本研究采用统计回归法基于CO和NO_x污染源清单计算了2007—2015年珠江三角洲地区的人为热排放清单，对其排放趋势、热排放来源类型变化以及空间格局的演变进行了梳理.结果表明：2007—2015年珠三角地区年平均人为热均大于9 W·m^-2，人为热排放峰值出现在2010年，趋势为先增加后减少，这与燃料消耗总量的变化趋势基本一致，而工业源和道路移动源是影响人为热排放总量变化的最大因素：2007—2015年珠三角地区大部分区域人为热排放处于0~20 W·m^-2，高值区（>20 W·m^-2）主要分布于珠三角地区中心地带的城市群，高值区缩减的面积和速度在2010—2012年期间达到最大.进一步对2012年人为热清单的不确定性分析表明：总人为热的95%置信区间的不确定性为-16%~49%，其中电厂类别排放估算中的不确定性最小，为-13%~16%，而工业源的不确定性最高，为-46%~73%.

An analysis of evolution trend and uncertainty of anthropogenic heat emissions in the Pearl River Delta Region

The large amount of waste heat generated in human production and life has a significant effect on the temperature of the urban environment, the structure of the urban boundary layer, air quality and human health. However, some shortcomings exist in the calculation methods of anthropogenic heat emission inventory, such as the complexity of needed basic resources and calculation procedures, large deviations between the spatial distribution and the emissions and so on. This research adopts the statistical regression method to calculate the anthropogenic heat emission inventory of the Pearl River Delta from 2007 to 2015 based on the CO and NO_x pollution source inventory through which the emission trends, the change of heat emission varieties and the evolution of spatial patterns have been reviewed. The results show that the average annual anthropogenic heat in the Pearl River Delta region from 2007 to 2015 is greater than 9 W·m^-2, with the peak appearing in 2010. It goes from an increase at an early stage and decreases later which is consistent with the changes in total fuel consumption. Industrial sources and road-mobile sources are the two dominant factors driving the changes in total anthropogenic heat emissions. The anthropogenic heat emissions in Pearl River Delta region were ranges from 0 to 20 W·m^-2 from 2007 to 2015, and the high-value area (> 20 W·m^-2) is mainly distributed in the urban agglomeration of the central area of the Pearl River Delta. The area and speed of the high-value area''s reduction reached the largest during 2010-2012. The uncertainty analysis of the heat inventory shows that the 95% confidence interval of the total anthropogenic heat has an uncertainty range from -16% to 49%. The uncertainty in the power plant category emission estimation is the smallest, with a range from -13% to 16%, while the uncertainty in the industrial sources is the largest, ranging from -46% to 73%.