| Abstract: | Natural disaster is the result of abnormal natural phenomena acting on mankind. It not only relates to many natural science branches, but also closely relates to economy, property density, social development level and the vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies. Therefore, while doing disaster reduction research, we must connect natural sciences closely with human society; we should study the interplay process of nature and society and its results therefrom. Before disasters occur, based on the middle and short term disaster weather forecast, the middle and short term forecast and assessment technology of atmospheric hydrosphere disasters can forecast and assess the possible losses (the affected areas and economic losses,etc.). With the help of the disaster reduction information system and synthetic database we already set up, we have studied the law of disasters and have designed the middle and short term disaster assessment process. Through analysis of disaster situation (with the development of modern science, information and telecommunication technology, for the sake of a good command of disaster, without the presence of the disaster assessment people on the spot, it is absolutely necessary to command and to analyse the dynamics of disaster situation), through analysis of the relation between accumulative rainfall and disaster, we adopt the methods of comparative analysis of similar disasters, experience statistics model, economic measurable model and comprehensive decision,etc. to forecast and assess the losses caused by the atmospheric hydrosphere disasters such as typhoon and rainstorm 1 to 3 days ahead. The technology makes a comprehensive use of technologies of modern weather forecast, geographical information system, information process, mathematical and physical statistics, computer graph and image,etc.to establish day to day real time disaster assessment system under the condition of routine, satellite and radar data. In the summer of 1994 and 1995 a quasi business test operation of one to three day ahead disaster forecast and assessment was launched, achieving both social and economic benefits. This thesis briefly introduces some technologies and methods of forecast and assessment on atmospheric hydrosphere disasters. |
