Stochastic analysis of radioactive waste package performance using first-order reliability method

In order to license an underground radioactive waste repository, it is important to demonstrate regulatory compliance with authoritative regulations. Also it is evidence from NRC's criteria for waste package performance that a stochastic analysis is necessary to provide that these criteria can be met with confidence. The first-order reliability method is an attractive tool to the stochastic analysis and particularly useful when statistical information is incomplete, as is common for problems occurring in the subsurface environment. The method is based on using the first-order Taylor series expansion at a specific linearization point to calculate a measure of reliability. Results from a first-order reliability analysis include an estimate of the probability of exceeding a specified performance criteria and measures of the sensitivity of the stochastic solution to the changes in input random variables and their statistical moments. The method of stochastic analysis is illustrated by analyzing the canister corrosion in a radioactive waste package.