因果图和层次分析法在事故预防中的应用研究

通过引入因果图法和层次分析法,首先将导致事故发生的原因用因果图法进行分析和表示,然后根据一定的内在机理将因果图转换成AHP的层次结构模型,利用AHP严格的数学逻辑定量计算方法,求得各原因事件的权值,得出各原因事件导致事故发生的重要程度,从而确定影响事故发生的关键原因,进而作为事故预防的重点。以高速公路交通事故诊断为例,得出驾驶员的技术水平和安全意识是影响高速公路交通事故的主导因素的结论。结果表明,运用该法得出的结果符合实际,对事故预防有借鉴意义。

Application Study of Cause-effect Diagram and AHP to the Accident Prevention

The key point to preventing accidents is to control the key factors causing accidents.So,how to determine the key factors becomes an important step of accident prevention.To solve this problem,a method here is researched by introducing cause-effect diagram and AHP(analytic hierarchy process).Firstly,all the causes leading to accident are expressed by cause-effect diagram according to the mechanism of accident occurring.Then,according to certain mechanism,this diagram is transferred into layer-structured model of AHP,and the weight of each cause can be obtained by AHP algorithm.Thus,the significance of each cause is determined,and then key causes can be chosen out as the important aspects of accident prevention.By using the method to diagnose the highway traffic accidents,the results show that the key factors affecting this kind of accidents are the technical level and safety consciousness of drivers,which indicates that this method is practical,feasible and worthy of being used for reference.