Erkenntnisfortschritt und Theorienbewertung. Drei konkurrierende Ansätze in der Wissenschaftstheorie

Explicating the concept of cognitive progress means at the same time articulating an ideal of science. A desirable ideal: explain a lot and offer certainty. Working out the ideal with the “foundationalist-positivist” approach. If the question, “When is it rational to accept a theory?” is answered, “When it has sufficient inductive support,” this leads to insoluble problems. The Popperian alternative: rational theory preference despite fallibility of methods for determining truth or greater accuracy of representations. The sorts of risks for a theory differ in explanation and in prediction. Corresponding to the risks are the chances for cognitive progress. Instead of a cumulative index, itemized indication of success and failure in explanation and prediction with regard for importance of the questions at issue.