基于博弈论的地铁车站恐怖袭击风险定量研究

近年来发生的几起地铁重大恐怖袭击事件引起了各国政府、媒体和公众的广泛关注.地铁车站恐怖袭击可以看作博弈双方即袭击者和防御者之间的零和博弈.本文以某地铁线路上的22个车站为例,应用目标损失概率模型定量分析了恐怖袭击风险,通过防御资源变化得到了不同的目标损失概率.研究结果可以为地铁车站防御资源优化配置、防恐反恐预案编制等提供量化依据.

Terror attack risk assessment of subway station based of game theory

The present paper aims to introduce the authors' analysis of the terrorist attack risks with the 22 stations of certain subway line and the model of the probability estimate of the target losses developed by the paper. As we know, once an attack was attempted, losses would occur with a probability such and such, and so and so. Such probability of target loss can be worked out through the calculation of the change of the defended resources, which provide optimal allocation of the defended resources to the subway station under study and the structure of the counter-terrorism emergency plan. However, since the terrorist risks differ from the natural disasters for their particular nature of the ill intent of their instigators. As a consequence, game theory can be used as an important analytic tool. And in turn, such attacks on the subway stations can be regarded as zero-sum game between the attacker and the defender.