城市生态承载力研究

生态安全是生态承载力的“底线” ,超过了这一临界值 ,生态安全问题就会凸显而变得严重 ,甚至出现崩溃。笔者通过对生态足迹需求和生态承载力的计算 ,判断该地区处于生态盈余 /赤字 ,得出该地区自然生态系统所提供的产品和服务的供应量超过了 /不足以该地区人们正常生活的需求量的结论。计算出珠海 2 0 0 2年生态足迹和生态承载力 ,该结果显示出珠海的发展属于地方可持续性的。通过计算珠海从 2 0 0 2～ 2 0 2 0年各指标的时间序列值来追踪各个时点的可持续程度 ,弥补了生态足迹计算法中指标静态性的缺陷。预测了未来 18年珠海的生态足迹需求 ,其结果表明珠海市生态承载力严重不足 ,生态功能水平薄弱。城市生态承载力的研究不仅能指导珠海生态安全和可持续发展 ,而对其他城市的生态规划及发展也具有参考价值。

Research on Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity

Eco safety is the base line of ecological capacity. Once this critical value is surpassed, eco safety would collapse. By calculating the ecological footprint demand and eco capacity of a particular area can help to determine whether the area is in eco surplus or eco deficit, thereby leading to conclusions on whether the provision of products and services in ecosystem of this area meets the demand of local people's daily life. Take Zhuhai as an example. Statistics on ecological footprint and eco capacity in 2002 of Zhuhai shows the development of the city falls into the category of “locally sustainable”. By calculating the time sequence value of indexes from 2002 to 2020 of Zhuhai to trace the sustainability at specific time supplements the shortfall of static indexes used in ecological footprint calculation. The urban ecological footprint demand in the coming 18 years is predicted, which reveals that Zhuhai is well inadequate in terms of eco capacity and weak in eco function. Studies on urban eco capacity have bearing on researches in eco safety and sustainable development of Zhuhai, and may provide references for ecological planning for other cities.