The analysis of domino effect impact probability triggered by fragments

Explosion fragments are the main cause of domino effect in accidents of the chemical and process industry. A number of significant studies have been conducted to further our understanding of the mutual impact of two major hazard installations (MHIs). This work focused on the development of a new model for the impact probability of domino effect triggered by fragments. Firstly, an expression for the initial projection velocity of fragments was founded by taking the explosion moment as a polytropic process and solving energy transformation equation, then the flight trajectory and velocity were represented by some equations with the flight boundary conditions in flight process under gravity and air friction. With the obtained equations as the objective function, the projection uncertainty was analyzed through sampling of the random variables. Finally, a new systemic model for the impact probability of domino effect is put forward by integrating the flight laws and projection uncertainty of fragments, and the impact probability linear equations with the coefficient matrix of secondary effect were built up in order to calculate the impact probability of domino effect. The study on domino effect impact probability provides some useful insights into the generation mechanism, projection features, flight laws and impacts on targets of the fragments, and also lays a foundation for analysis of domino chain risk caused by explosive fragments in chemical industrial complex.