中国省域碳排放强度的集聚效应和辐射效应研究

估算了中国1997—2013年30个省(市、自治区)的碳排放强度数据,并利用全局Moran's Ⅰ指数、局域Moran's Ⅰ指数以及莫兰散点图从集聚效应和辐射效应两个角度考察了我国区域碳排放强度空间分布特征.结果显示:1集聚效应:我国省域碳排放强度具有明显的空间集聚特征,碳排放强度水平相似区域倾向于相邻分布;另外,碳排放强度空间分布呈现不断优化的趋势,即"低-低"集聚不断增加,"高-高"集聚逐渐减少.2辐射效应:内蒙古、宁夏和山西等省对周边地区的碳排放强度具有明显的正向辐射效应,广东、福建和浙江等省对周边地区碳排放强度具有明显的负向辐射效应.最后,据此提出政策建议.

Agglomeration effect and radiation effect of provincial carbon emission intensity in China

This study estimated the provincial carbon emission intensity data in China from 1997 to 2013, and used Global Moran''s I, Local Moran''s I and Moran''s Scatter Diagram to examine the spatial distribution features of China''s regional carbon emission intensity from the perspectives of both agglomeration effect and radiation effect. The results indicate that China''s provincial carbon emission intensity shows a marked feature of spatial agglomeration, as regions of similar level of carbon emission intensity tend to be geographically adjacent to each other. Moreover, the spatial distribution of carbon emission intensity shows a tendency of continuous improvement, as evidenced by the fact that "low-low" agglomeration is increasing while "high-high" agglomeration is decreasing. Provinces such as Inner Mogolia, Ningxia Autonomous Region and Shanxi exert an obvious positive radiation effect on the carbon emission intensity of neighboring regions, while provinces such Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang bring negative radiation effect to the carbon emission intensity of neighboring regions. Finally, advices on policy making are proposed based on the above-mentioned results and analysis.