基于环境监测数据的大气重污染应急减排措施效果评估

我国自2013年起对重点区域逐步开展重污染天气应对工作，以削减大气重污染峰值、减缓重污染的发生和发展.为更客观地评估重污染天气应急减排措施的效果，基于环境监测数据对应急效果评估开展方法学研究，通过对洛伦兹曲线内涵的拓展，提出污染物高位累积浓度占比的概念，并以PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂四种污染物为研究对象，评估重污染天气应急措施减排效果，同时将评估结果与空气质量模型模拟结果进行相互辅证.结果表明:2016年和2017年秋冬季（当年10月1日-翌年3月31日）"2+26"城市PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂高位累积浓度占比较2015年同期均有所下降，降幅为0.43%~3.80%；PM_2.5、PM₁₀高位累积浓度占比降幅相对SO₂、NO₂大，其中，2016年和2017年秋冬季PM_2.5高位累积浓度占比较2015年同期降幅均为2.23%，PM₁₀高位累积浓度占比较2015年同期降幅分别为1.89%、3.80%.研究显示，应急措施在"2+26"城市范围内对PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂起到了较显著的重污染削峰作用，其中，应急措施对PM_2.5、PM₁₀等颗粒物重污染削峰效果优于SO₂、NO₂等气态污染物. 

Effect Assessment of Emergency Measures for Heavy Air Pollution based on Environmental Monitoring Data

For the purpose of reducing the peak concentration of pollutants and slowing down the occurrence and development of heavy air pollution, the key regions have gradually implemented emergency measures since 2013. To assess the effect of the '2+26' cities emergency measures more objectively and to verify the results of air quality models, we conducted a methodological study on emergency assessment based on the routine monitoring data. Through extending the Lorenz curve connotation, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO₂ were taken as the research objects and the conception of ratio of pollutant high cumulative concentration was suggested for reference of the assessment of the mitigation effect of emergency measures. The results showed that:The ratio of high cumulative concentration of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO₂ in the autumn and winter in 2016 and 2017 decreased compared to the same period in 2015, with a decrease between 0.43%-3.80%; taking 2015 as the base year, the ratio of PM_2.5, PM₁₀ with high cumulative concentration in the '2+26' cities in the autumn and winter in 2016 and 2017 decreased more than that of SO₂ and NO₂. The ratio of PM_2.5 with high cumulative concentration in the autumn and winter of 2016 and 2017 both decreased by 2.23% compared with the same period in 2015; compared with the same period in 2015, the ratio of PM₁₀ with high cumulative concentration in the autumn and winter of 2016 and 2017 decreased by 1.89% and 3.80%. The study suggested that the emergency measures have played a significant role in reducing the peak concentration of the pollutants, moreover, they had worked better in reducing particulate matter than gaseous pollutants such as SO₂ and NO₂.