中国经济增长与CO2排放演化探析

随着全球能源消耗的持续增加,温室气体的排放和气候灾变日益受到各国政府的高度关注,有关区域经济发展与大气环境效应演变规律和态势的研究亦方兴未艾。本文旨在采用SPSS统计软件和Excel系统。以库兹涅茨环境曲线{EKC）及衍生曲线为依据,对中国CO2排放量与人均收入增长时序资料进行统计拟合得出中国经济发展与CO2排放的函数关系。研究表明,三次曲线方程较之标准型的环境库兹涅茨二次曲线方程更能映示中国数十年来经济发展与CO2排放变化之间的相依关系。这种似“N型”而非“倒U型”的演化特征。意昧着我国在同时推进经济发展和环境保护事业上仍处于过渡期,尚无法达到两者协同发展的阶段。为此,本文对我国耒案经济．社会的健康发展和CO2减排提出了系列应对的策略。

Study on China's Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions

As the global energy use increases continually,green house gas emission and climate catastrophic change become the focal issues of some governments.Some regions have begun to research the evolutive discipline,state of the economic development and gas emission effect.This paper,based on the Kuznets curve and relative curve fitting methods and supported by SPSS software and Excel,aims to statistically research on the relationship between the amounts of China's CO2 emissions and per-capita income according to their time sequence resources.The result showed that compared with the standard Environmental Kuznets Curve,cubic-curve equation was more appropriate to reveal the connection between China's economic growth and CO2 emission change in the past few decades.The relationship between CO2 emission and China's economy was more like an "N" Curve than typical "inverted-U" one,which also proved that China is still in the interim of balancing the development of both economy and environment.Whereafter,this issue also gave some suggestions to China's soci-economic sustainable development and CO2 emission reduction.