基于云物元理论的引航环境风险评价模型研究

引航环境的风险评价对引航船舶的航行安全意义重大。将引航环境安全因素分为自然环境、航道条件、交通环境和被引船舶状况4个一级指标,建立引航环境风险评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定评价指标的权重系数,并针对引航环境风险评价指标的随机性和模糊性,建立引航环境风险评价的标准正态云物元模型,计算待评物元与标准正态云物元之间的关联度,从而引入置信度准则识别风险等级。最后,将此方法应用于长江江苏段引航环境的风险评价中,结果表明该方法实用、准确。

On the evaluation for the pilotage navigation environment risks based on the cloud matter-element model

The paper is intended to classify the pilotage risks of different waterways properly and establish a comprehensive model for the quantitative evaluation of such risks of different waterways based on the cloud model and matter-element model. To achieve the said purpose,we have first of all studied the characteristic features of the pilotage environment in reference to the currently existing research results. To our knowledge,the safety factors of the pilotage environment can be divided into 4 primary indexes, such as the natural environment,the waterway channel conditions, the navigation and transportation environment as well as the status of the piloted vessels,which can then be divided into 10 secondary-level indexes. And,furthermore,each secondary index can also be subdivided into 5 risk levels. It is also known that, according to the regularity of the cloud model indexes,the values of the indexes can be worked out according to the model of the risk evaluation indexes,so as to obtain the correlation degrees between the actual value of the evaluation index and the normal cloud model of the evaluation level by means of the correlation functions. Following the normal cloud model,it would be necessary to standardize the index correlation degree matrix through regulation and normalization. And,thirdly,it would be necessary to identify and determine the weight coefficients of the evaluation indexes by using the entropy weight method. In addition,the weight vector can then be multiplied with the standardized correlation matrix so as to get the evaluation vectors of the pilotage environment risk. Thus,finally,we have also introduced the confidence level criterion to identify the risk levels. For example,we have chosen 4 channels of Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River in the case study sample. And,in accordance with the risk index system,we have gained the objective quantitative values of each channel's indexes. Moreover,we have also worked out the pilotage environment risk level of each channel and risk rank via processing the above said values by the cloud matter-element model. To verify the results,20 pilots have been invited to join in the risk evaluation results in close accordance with the expert-scoring criteria of each evaluation index. Therefore,the qualitative and quantitative evaluation results have been proven and conformed through comparison of their respective validity and accuracy of the model.