基于免疫机理的氯化工艺事故风险模糊评价

为预防氯化工艺安全生产事故,基于生物免疫机理,先应用仿生学方法分析了氯化安全生产事故预警体系与生物免疫系统的相似性,结合氯化生产工艺的实际情况,构建了基于抗原-抗体模式的安全生产预警体系的层次模型,并确定了各评价指标的权重。结果表明,影响较大的抗原A指标有A12(个体的防护水平)、A24(氯的毒性)、A34(暴露于危险环境);影响较大的抗体B指标有B12(应急机制的完善)、B26(反应物料比例的控制和连锁)、B29(冷却系统中冷却介质的温度)、B30(冷却系统中冷却介质的压力)。基于所构建的氯化工艺安全生产预警指标体系,结合某厂氯苯生产工艺及操作控制指标,进一步运用模糊综合评价方法,对该工艺的事故风险进行了模糊评价。结果表明,以抗原-抗体模式建立的事故风险模糊综合评价方法可操作性强、效果较好,可以提高事故的预防和控制能力,可在工艺过程的安全综合评价中广泛应用。

Fuzzy evaluation for the chlorination process accident risk based on the immune mechanism

The paper is aimed at introducing a hierarchical model for early warning systems for preventing industrial accidents of chlorination process based on the similarity mechanism between the biological immune system and the early warning system of chlorination in combination with the actual situation of chloride production process.In doing so,we have determined and weighed the comparative significance of the indexes through the hierarchical analytic process.According to the fuzzy evaluation results of different indexes,the major influential factors of antigen A should be A12 (the individual level for self-protection),A24 (the toxicity of chlorine),and A34 (exposure to the hazardous environment),among which the major antigens are B12 (helpful for improving emergency response mechanisms),B26 (controlling and interlocking the reaction ratio of the materials),B29 (the temperature for cooling the media in the cooling system) and B30 (cooling medium pressure in the cooling system).On the basis of the constructed safety process for chlorinating the early warning indexing system,it would be possible to make an evaluation of the accident risks by using the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method in combination with the production process and the operation control indicators of an authentic chloro-benzene factory.The results of the practical application indicate that the method for fuzzy evaluation can be successfully adopted for detecting the potential risks in the chlo rination process.In addition,the results of application also reveal that the maximum fruitful application of the membership principle helps to draw a risk index of 0.366 2 for an overall objective,which has been taken as being of "low" level,signifying that the chlorobenzene production process can be used to ensure the safety production with lower risk liabilities under the current operating control status-in-situ.The practical application results also sug gest the feasibility and effectiveness of the system under study.Thus,it can be seen that the method we have worked out can also heighten the capability for preventing and reducing the risk accidents and is expected to be widely used in the industrial process.