基于组合权重模糊物元模型的船桥碰撞风险评价

为了定量评价船桥碰撞风险,确定不同桥梁的安全程度,通过头脑风暴法对影响船舶通过桥区水域安全的因素进行辨识,构建了包含10个Ⅰ级指标的指标体系,采用AHP法和熵权法分别从主、客观的角度计算各指标的权重,并依据最小鉴别原理进行权重组合,得到兼顾主、客观因素的权重。将各项评价指标划分为低危险度、较低危险度、中等危险度、较高危险度和高危险度5个安全等级,结合组合权重构建船桥碰撞风险模糊物元评价模型。最后利用该模型对长江干线6个典型桥梁的船撞桥风险进行了评价。结果表明,除"C"桥梁处于"中等危险度"外,其他5座桥梁均处于"较低危险度",该模型应用于船桥碰撞综合评价具有较好的适应性。

Ship-bridge collision risk assessment based on the combined weights and matter element model

This paper is aimed at identifying and determining the influential factors on the safety of the ship-passing the bridge area by using an index system with 10 first-degree indicators in a brainstorming approach. As is well known,great attention has to be paid to the ship-bridge collision in the water transportation and traffic actuality. In order to evaluate the risk of ship-bridge collision quantitatively and qualitatively,it is necessary first of all to determine the safety of the different ships from their own proper performance-solidification and operationality. At the same time,it is necessary to divide each evaluation indicators into five safety grades,that is,the lower grade risk,low grade risk,the middle grade risk,higher-grade risk and high-grade risk. And,then,on the basis of the second level functions established,the paper has worked out the weight of each evaluation index with the subjective and objective evaluation factors included through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method to gain the comprehensive masses according to the principle of the minimum discrimination. And,finally,we have built up a fuzzy matter-element evaluation model of the vessel collision risk prevention based on the integrated weight. To test and conform the effectiveness of the method,we have taken the 6 typical bridges along the Yangtze River as the matter-element evaluation samples for the assessment purpose by using the model. The results of our test show that the other five bridges are all at the " low-grade risk" scale except for the bridges as"C"are in " the middle level risk". Thus, not only can the model help us to get rid of a big fault of the expert scoring in the traditional risk assessment process,it can also ensure the safety function of the bridge girder under the ship collision based on the fuzzy matter-element theory. Therefore,the model we have developed proves to be feasible for the comprehensive evaluation of the risks of ship-bridge collision.