基于突变级数法的大型商场火灾危险性评价

大型商场火灾发生的原因多种多样,一般的评价方法难以准确确定参数的权重,无法对商场火灾危险性进行准确评价。为了提高大型商场火灾危险性等级并为其提供更加合理的评价方法,采用将突变理论与模糊数学相结合的评价方法——突变级数法对大型商场的火灾危险性进行评价。该方法从建筑物自身因素、消防因素、应急因素和其他因素4个角度出发建立评价指标体系,不用确定各因素权重,只需考虑各指标对商场火灾影响的相对重要性,可保证评价的客观性。最后以沈阳某大型商场为例进行了计算分析,基于突变级数法求得该大型商场火灾危险性评价的总突变隶属矩阵,依据"总突变隶属函数值越大越优"的原则,确定该大型商场的火灾危险等级为三级,即"一般安全"。依据此评价结果,提出了提高该大型商场火灾危险性等级的对策,主要包括合理规划商场布局、改善消防设施、修订有效的应急预案、定期进行应急演练、加强安全管理、培养合理的安全文化。

Fire risk probability evaluation for the grandiose shopping malls based on the catastrophe progression method

In order to improve the fire risk prevention grade and offer a more reasonable method to its evaluation research,the paper is inclined to adopt an evaluation method for joining catastrophe theory with fuzzy math method,known as series mutation approach to evaluating the fire risks of large-scale shopping malls.Since there exist too numerous reasons likely to lead to the disastrous fires in such beg shopping malls,it would be difficult to identify and determine the likeliness parameters involved accurately,and as a result not easy to obtain the accurate evaluation results from the research work.Therefore,for the research convenience,we have now established a new evaluation index system from the following 4 aspects,namely,the building-construction factors,the fire prevention and control factors,the emergencyemerged factors and the other likely factors.And,for the purpose of evaluation,we prefer to choose the catastrophe progression method,by which it may not be necessary to determine the weight of each factor.Rather,it is only necessary to take into account the relative importance of each index on the fire disaster-leading probabilites,so as to ensure the objectivity of the evaluation.Furthermore,we have also chosen a shopping mall in Shenyang as a study sample to determine the total mutation membership matrix of the fire risk assessment.The principle we prefer to take is that "the greater the entire mutations subordinate function is,the bet ter the confidential value of the evaluation would be." Thus,we have determined that the fire risk probability of the mall should be attributed to grade 3,namely,"safety in general." And,consequently,the evaluation results help us to improve the fire risk level of such malls by working out some systematic countermeasures,mainly,including the rational planning of the layout of the shopping mall,the improvement of the fire control systems and facilities,revision of the effective emergency planning,and regulation of the emergency drills on the basis of empowering the safety management and cultivation of reasonable safety culture in the whole shopping more enterprise.