基于正态云模型的区域生态安全评价

为了有效监测和评估区域生态安全状况,针对区域生态安全评价中出现的模糊性和随机性问题,构建了基于正态云模型和熵权法的区域生态安全综合评价模型。首先,结合PSR理论模型,从压力、状态、响应3个方面构建了区域生态安全评价指标体系。然后,利用熵权法确定各指标的权重,通过正态云模型进行评价,根据最大隶属度原则确定了区域生态安全等级;并利用GIS技术实现了区域生态安全评价计算结果的可视化表示。最后,以安徽省16个地级市2010—2015年的相关指标数据为研究对象进行了实证研究。结果表明,除了2013年处于III级水平,2010—2015年安徽省生态安全状况基本处于II级水平,表明安徽省生态安全评价结果为危险等级。

Supervision and evaluation of the regional ecological security based on the normal cloud model

This paper is aimed to present a report on the supervisory evaluation of the regional ecological security situation based on the normal cloud model so as to provide the assessment results of the regional ecological security. For this purpose,we have, first of all,established a regional ecological security evaluation index system from the following 3 aspects: the atmospheric pressure, the pollution status-in-situ and the social response. And, secondly,the weight of each index has to be determined via the entropy weight method. Thirdly,the regional ecological security parameters have also been evaluated and determined in terms of the normal cloud model in addition to use of the maximum membership principle. Fourthly,we have also managed to visualize the evaluation results of the regional ecological security by means of a software known as ArcGIS 10. 2. The results of our evaluation show that the pressure index has still been at level II with the status index being at level III,while the response index tends to rise from III to IV in 2010-2015 except for 2013,when it was at level III. Thus,the evaluation results on the whole imply that the ecological security of the province has been in danger. On the other hand,the ecological security trend in the province turns to be gradually improved based on the trend of the comprehensive subordinate indexical parameters of each aspect. For example,from the spatial distribution of the pollutant status-in-situ,the ecological security indexical parameters have been varying obviously from place to place in the Central Anhui,where the indexical parameters turn to be stable in the north and south of the province. In contrast,the Central Anhui proves to be better than in the north and middle of the province. Attention has to be paid particularly to the security situation of Ma'anshan,Huainan and Anqing,with the indexical parameters in Hefei and Lu'an turning to be declining. Therefore,what we have done in this paper proves the availability of the normal cloud model,which can help to solve the fuzziness and randomness in the assessment process,with the entropy weight method being able to overcome the subjectivity in determining the entropy weight method. Thus,we have successfully worked out a case study sample by surveying and collecting the relevant index data of 16 prefecture-level cities and towns in Anhui from 2010 to 2015 in a literary form. The results show that the weights of the evaluation indexical system adopted in this paper can help to overcome the subjectivity in determining the indexical weights.